Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis

@michaelxpettis

4 Tweets Dec 03, 2024
1/4
This WSJ article lays out what is in effect an intractable problem of simple arithmetic. China represents 17% of global GDP and 30% of global manufacturing. Its current growth model requires that it increases its share further.
wsj.com via @WSJ
2/4
The US represents 23% of global GDP and only 17% of global manufacturing. Like other advanced economies with persistent deficits, its share of global manufacturing has declined. That's why it is taking steps to reverse this decline and raise its manufacturing share of GDP.
3/4
But if the two economies, who collectively comprise nearly half of global manufacturing, both try to increase their manufacturing shares, this requires that all other countries reduce their own manufacturing shares to accommodate them.
4/4
Not surprisingly, neither the EU nor most developing economies are interested in playing that role. So something must break – we cannot all raise or maintain our shares of global manufacturing. This is just arithmetic.

Loading suggestions...