Oh, I do.
The problem is that coups used to work because of a variable that has drastically changed over the last two decades: that is, the means of dissemination of information. So if you use the old playbook, you're going to fail laughably.
The problem is that coups used to work because of a variable that has drastically changed over the last two decades: that is, the means of dissemination of information. So if you use the old playbook, you're going to fail laughably.
There are two aspects of this:
1) informational fog of war is no longer local but coherent – public information can reach everyone equally fast
2) effective group coordination, likewise, no longer requires physical assembly.
1) informational fog of war is no longer local but coherent – public information can reach everyone equally fast
2) effective group coordination, likewise, no longer requires physical assembly.
Ad 1)
Coups rely heavily on informational fog of war to operate. Lacking information on what is going on is what impedes the ability to act correctly; simply acting rationally is no longer enough since not everyone has the same information. This is why coups have to be swift.
Coups rely heavily on informational fog of war to operate. Lacking information on what is going on is what impedes the ability to act correctly; simply acting rationally is no longer enough since not everyone has the same information. This is why coups have to be swift.
With information being easily broadcastable into the aether, successful coup execution now no longer requires merely making sure that nobody gets out and reaches the public: now, it requires the ability to break the telecommunications, best in a way which doesn't alert anyone
Especially the last part is a hard problem. Everyone knows what internet and mobile network being down. So even those who do have the means of doing it will have trouble pulling it off. And there's always someone who uses the backup channels – P2P chatapps, satellite, ham radio.
So, when you look at a recent & successful coup, what does one see? July 2023 Niger, the national broadcaster was seized as the primary coup goal, & we got some kino out of it (I retweeted some gems right after it happened in brief) x.com
ad 2) Coup seizing control of the main political buildings used to have practical value: it means the opposition has no fallback location to assemble at (especially if they can't effectively message each other on intentions). Now it can only be symbolic.
Simply being able to communicate is enough. There's no messengers to be intercepted, and that the opposition doesn't have to assemble in the same place also means it's not possible to just dispatch some coup forces there as you learn of it – you have to get everyone one by one.
Both points together mean that, whenever a coup is planned according to the old playbook (because most don't even think about why that would be obsolete), a coup will be thwarted simply by OSINT existing – everyone has essentially the same fog of war.
A coup will not be televised, because that defeats the purpose of a coup. And yet – all the examples of those "embarrassing failures orchestrated by complete morons" were televised! Not only they wouldn't look as ridiculous if they weren't & we only learned about it post-hoc;
I dare claim that some might succeed because at a crucial moment, someone was able to instantly obtain information about what needs to be done, without there being a messenger moment that a coup would have historically prevented.
I also don't think simply readjusting the playbook and recognizing the informational institutions as the seat of power would be enough. Information is by its nature distributed; government is hierarchical (notwithstanding the decentralist copes – that's just informal hierarchy).
So, in short: coups, at least as we know them, are obsolete due to 21st century information technology. It doesn't mean that seizure of power can no longer be executed. But it certainly won't look like a coup.
since there's been multiple comments & questions, what about public protests etc etc., here's another thread on that x.com
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