Apollo with a HUGE call this morning:
For the first time since the "Fed pivot" began, Apollo has officially declared inflation back on the rise.
They warn of a potential repeat the 1970s as the Fed cuts rates into rising inflation.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread)
For the first time since the "Fed pivot" began, Apollo has officially declared inflation back on the rise.
They warn of a potential repeat the 1970s as the Fed cuts rates into rising inflation.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread)
Fed and market-implied measures of inflation are now all above the Fed’s 2% target.
We are at risk of a potential 1970s-style rebound in inflation into 2025/2026.
Apollo says the probability of the Fed RAISING interest rates in 2025 is now rising. x.com
We are at risk of a potential 1970s-style rebound in inflation into 2025/2026.
Apollo says the probability of the Fed RAISING interest rates in 2025 is now rising. x.com
First, measures of inflation stickiness are all now well above the Fed's 2% target.
In fact, the Atlanta Fed Core Sticky CPI index has leveled off near 4%.
ALL major measures of CPI stickiness are now above 3%.
What happened to the Fed's 2% inflation target? x.com
In fact, the Atlanta Fed Core Sticky CPI index has leveled off near 4%.
ALL major measures of CPI stickiness are now above 3%.
What happened to the Fed's 2% inflation target? x.com
Meanwhile, core CPI has leveled off at 3.3% fore multiple months in a row.
This was "fine" because headline CPI was moving in a straight-line to 2% all year.
However, as of the latest CPI inflation data, it's now RISING and back to 2.7%.
The "Fed pivot" is doomed here. x.com
This was "fine" because headline CPI was moving in a straight-line to 2% all year.
However, as of the latest CPI inflation data, it's now RISING and back to 2.7%.
The "Fed pivot" is doomed here. x.com
Take a look at the shorter-duration annualized core CPI metrics.
3-month annualized core CPI inflation is now back up to an alarming 4%!
6-month annualized core CPI fell to 2.5% before rebounding back toward 3% now.
Core inflation may actually be rising again. x.com
3-month annualized core CPI inflation is now back up to an alarming 4%!
6-month annualized core CPI fell to 2.5% before rebounding back toward 3% now.
Core inflation may actually be rising again. x.com
Meanwhile, oil prices are surging and closed the week above $71 on Friday.
Our premium clients bought the dip into $67, as shown in our alert below.
With inflation rebounding, we are trading.
Subscribe at the link below to access our analysis:
thekobeissiletter.com x.com
Our premium clients bought the dip into $67, as shown in our alert below.
With inflation rebounding, we are trading.
Subscribe at the link below to access our analysis:
thekobeissiletter.com x.com
Take a look at PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
1-month annualized core PCE inflation is now at 3.5%+ and we haven't even gotten November's data yet.
1-month, 3-month, and 6-month annualized core PCE inflation are ALL back on the rise here. x.com
1-month annualized core PCE inflation is now at 3.5%+ and we haven't even gotten November's data yet.
1-month, 3-month, and 6-month annualized core PCE inflation are ALL back on the rise here. x.com
This also explains recent strength in gold.
Our premium clients got ahead of the move back to $2750, as seen below.
Most recently, when gold fell into $2,600, we called for a rebound into $2700+.
Subscribe at the link below to access our alerts:
thekobeissiletter.com x.com
Our premium clients got ahead of the move back to $2750, as seen below.
Most recently, when gold fell into $2,600, we called for a rebound into $2700+.
Subscribe at the link below to access our alerts:
thekobeissiletter.com x.com
Even more alarming is the Supercore PCE inflation data.
1-month annualized Supercore PCE inflation is now nearing a whopping 5%.
Headline Supercore PCE inflation is above 3.5% and back on the rise.
Consumers are back under pressure of severe inflation in many categories. x.com
1-month annualized Supercore PCE inflation is now nearing a whopping 5%.
Headline Supercore PCE inflation is above 3.5% and back on the rise.
Consumers are back under pressure of severe inflation in many categories. x.com
This explains the recent surge in long-run inflation expectations.
As seen below, the 5-10 year inflation expectation has risen from ~2.8% to ~3.1%.
Prior to the pandemic, inflation expectations were as low as 2.2%. x.com
As seen below, the 5-10 year inflation expectation has risen from ~2.8% to ~3.1%.
Prior to the pandemic, inflation expectations were as low as 2.2%. x.com
This week, the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points again as the labor market weakens.
We believe stagflation is coming in 2025, the Fed's biggest nightmare.
Subscribe at the link below to see how we are trading these developments:
thekobeissiletter.com
We believe stagflation is coming in 2025, the Fed's biggest nightmare.
Subscribe at the link below to see how we are trading these developments:
thekobeissiletter.com
In conclusion, this clip will age terribly, in our data-driven opinion.
Fed Chair Powell was asked about stagflation in May 2025 and said he "doesn't see the stag or the flation."
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
x.com
Fed Chair Powell was asked about stagflation in May 2025 and said he "doesn't see the stag or the flation."
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
x.com
Loading suggestions...