How does a Discretionary Crypto Fund Trade? (and what you can learn)
Notes from our December 15th internal meeting🧵
Isolated factors/features to run a first in/first out approach to markets:
>seasonal patterns, macro trends, behavioral indicators, and sector-specific dynamics x.com
Notes from our December 15th internal meeting🧵
Isolated factors/features to run a first in/first out approach to markets:
>seasonal patterns, macro trends, behavioral indicators, and sector-specific dynamics x.com
1/ Seasonal Patterns:
December = EOY when retail traders tend to take profits and deal with tax payments. Rough month for crypto bulls seasonally.
No value in deliberation if this time is different. Hence, run a short-only playbook when Q4 seasonality discussion +BTC is at ATH 📉
December = EOY when retail traders tend to take profits and deal with tax payments. Rough month for crypto bulls seasonally.
No value in deliberation if this time is different. Hence, run a short-only playbook when Q4 seasonality discussion +BTC is at ATH 📉
2/ ETF Flows:
Very few discussions regarding slowing flows + Corporate Blackouts preventing passive bid+marginal buying. x.com
Very few discussions regarding slowing flows + Corporate Blackouts preventing passive bid+marginal buying. x.com
3/ Ethereum did not manage to get away with it either. Even after the speculative PA, the inflow remains too low reflecting fear even in crypto’s so called ‘more secure bet.’
Important to note that Eth might be good first bet on pullbacks given lack of spot bid on BTC (refer 1) x.com
Important to note that Eth might be good first bet on pullbacks given lack of spot bid on BTC (refer 1) x.com
4/ Spot Demand Dynamics:
The rally from $68k to $99k on BTC seems to have been largely dominated by $MSTR (or same model via other entities) ~ $25 billion in BTC spot during that period.
With the end of Saylor's buying spree, this major demand driver has begun to erode. 🛑
The rally from $68k to $99k on BTC seems to have been largely dominated by $MSTR (or same model via other entities) ~ $25 billion in BTC spot during that period.
With the end of Saylor's buying spree, this major demand driver has begun to erode. 🛑
5/ The active plan to build on MicroStrategy's aggressive trend alters the winds for the market making it difficult to navigate without a strong pillar. The risk of a correction is still there as momentum traders are likely to depart.
Also reflected in others vs BTC OI/funding. x.com
Also reflected in others vs BTC OI/funding. x.com
6/ Speculative Foam:
. meme coins
. “Dino” coins. Typically signals being in a later stage of the current run, where capital flows are mercenary. These outsized bids suggest a peak in MOMO strategies, likely to unwind on a BTC correction with a large number of forced sellers.
. meme coins
. “Dino” coins. Typically signals being in a later stage of the current run, where capital flows are mercenary. These outsized bids suggest a peak in MOMO strategies, likely to unwind on a BTC correction with a large number of forced sellers.
7/ Sentiment:
Retail sentiment (there are bunch of indicators that suggested) extreme greed from their side. Data from the series also shows a decline in net inflows to exchanges. which is a sign of making a profit
Retail driven sectors are vulnerable during periods of high vol.
Retail sentiment (there are bunch of indicators that suggested) extreme greed from their side. Data from the series also shows a decline in net inflows to exchanges. which is a sign of making a profit
Retail driven sectors are vulnerable during periods of high vol.
9/ Our strategy:
We shorted overvalued areas that tend to outperform on both the bear and bull sides:
>gamefi
>meme coins
>Dino coins
These areas lack a strong spot bid and momo strategies lead to a large unwinding in positioning
We shorted overvalued areas that tend to outperform on both the bear and bull sides:
>gamefi
>meme coins
>Dino coins
These areas lack a strong spot bid and momo strategies lead to a large unwinding in positioning
10/
It's not just a hunch. But it is also a confluence of signals supported by data.
Looking for $85-90k on BTC and a decrease in OI on alts back to November 5th levels as a Target.
It's not just a hunch. But it is also a confluence of signals supported by data.
Looking for $85-90k on BTC and a decrease in OI on alts back to November 5th levels as a Target.
Loading suggestions...