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General Joseph Aoun is the fourteenth president of the Lebanese state, after more than two years of vacuum and internal political struggle and international and regional movements. This important development comes amid a state of anticipation on the Lebanese-Israeli border, a political earthquake in Syria, and panic in Iran. A reading of the Lebanese scene after the election of Joseph Aoun and the difficulties he will face in the next stage.
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Even 24 hours before the start of the first round of voting in the Lebanese parliament, General Joseph Aoun did not have the 86 votes that would suffice for him to win the elections, and bypass article nr. 49 of the Lebanese constitution that prevents any first class employee in the Lebanese state from running for the presidency unless he has resigned or retired at least two years before the voting date. Thus, the 86 votes necessary to amend the constitution mean that the representatives of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement would vote in support of Joseph Aoun, which was not possible at that time. However, contacts led by the French presidential envoy, Jean Le Drian, personally, with the support of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United States of America, and Qatar, created a breakthrough in the position of Hezbollah and Nabih Berri, who chose not to vote for Joseph Aoun in the first round, then supported his vote in the second round, so that he won 99 votes out of 128, and Lebanon entered a new phase different from what it was in the past three decades.
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Indeed, during the past three decades, the election of the Lebanese president was either by a decision from the Assad regime in Damascus or through pressures and blackmail by the Hezbollah militia. Today, General Joseph Aoun, although he is supported by the US, France and the Arabs, also represents the aspirations of a large part of the Lebanese people, Christians, Druze and Sunnis. This internal and external support will be a dire need for him in the coming stage, in which he will be forced to adopt decisions that some may not like internally and regionally, and to begin implementing UN Resolution 1701 and the annex that was agreed upon by the US envoy Amos Hochstein and the Netanyahu government, to which Hezbollah claims that it does not agree.
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Less than 24 hours after General Joseph Aoun took the oath in the Lebanese parliament, the Israeli Air Force attacked a van belonging to the Hezbollah militia transporting fighters and weapons in the Tyre area in southern Lebanon, killing five and wounding four, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. This strike comes as part of the IDF’s strategy to prevent Hezbollah from transporting its weapons either north of the Litani River or south of it.
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This Israeli strategy will put President Joseph Aoun before difficult choices in the coming period. Despite Hezbollah’s agreement to withdraw from south of the Litani River and dismantle its infrastructure there, they still refuse the confiscation of their weapons in the area and demand that these weapons be handed over to the militia north of the Litani River. Hezbollah also asserts that neither Israel nor the Lebanese army has the right to prevent Hezbollah fighters from returning to their villages south of the Litani River, which will pose a challenge to both the IDF and the American-French committee responsible for monitoring the implementation of the ceasefire agreement decisions signed on November 26, and also a challenge to President Aoun.
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In the same context, the Israeli side confirms that the ceasefire agreement stipulates among its provisions that it is the responsibility of the Lebanese state to dismantle the weapons factories and missile warehouses owned by Hezbollah and spread in the areas north of the Litani River, which is also demanded by many Lebanese parties that stress the need to restrict weapons to the state and dissolve all militias. Although President Aoun emphasized the principle of restricting weapons to the state in his speech in the Lebanese parliament yesterday, media sources close to Hezbollah, in addition to the party’s Al-Manar channel, published today several points that were agreed upon between President Aoun on the one hand and Hezbollah’s Amal Movement on the other, which are: 👇
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*First, Resolution 1701 has no relation to Resolution 1559, and therefore Hezbollah’s weapons north of the Litani River were not affected.
*Second, emphasizing the role of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement in forming the next government, with guarantees that Hezbollah will obtain the Ministry of Finance portfolio and the addition of Hezbollah’s representation in the judiciary, security, and army.
*Third, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement obtain guarantees regarding the reconstruction file, so that the Lebanese state will be responsible for it and within a vision that suits Hezbollah.
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Of course, these leaks cannot be confirmed or denied, and if they are true, the Israeli government will have a different opinion, especially with Israeli assurances that they will not allow Hezbollah to be re-funded. Thus placing the Ministry of Finance for the next Lebanese government in the hands of Hezbollah will mean that the reconstruction funds that the international community will provide will go to Hezbollah to restore its human, military and financial capabilities, and this is something that is rejected even by the Arab countries, headed by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, who will have the most important role in the reconstruction file.
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In light of the French confirmation visit by President Emmanuel Macron to Beirut very soon to congratulate President Aoun on his position, it can be said that Paris will have a very important role at this stage. The French, by virtue of their relations with the Hezbollah militia and various Lebanese parties, are able to push towards changing the Lebanese scene and reducing internal and external tensions. However, this will depend first on a decision by the Macron administration itself to re-evaluate its policies in Lebanon after years of Paris’ negative role in Lebanon, during which they supported Hezbollah’s control over the Lebanese state and contributed to establishing the corrupt political class in exchange for suspicious financial contracts. Consequently, the Macron administration, which confirmed a few days ago that Iran poses the greatest threat to security and stability in the Middle East, must support change in Lebanon so that Beirut returns to being the Paris of the East.
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In conclusion, General Joseph Aoun takes over the presidency in Lebanon while the economy is collapsing, the Lebanese pound is at its lowest levels, the Israeli army is deployed in many villages in the south, an armed militia obeys Khamenei’s orders, the borders with Syria need a great deal of effort to control, drug trafficking protected by Hezbollah, land borders with Israel need demarcation, and maritime borders with Cyprus and Syria need demarcation. While the internal scene seems like a nightmare to President Aoun from his palace in Baabda, I think he should keep his eyes open towards Iran’s nuclear program.
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