You keep losing money because you dont know what low probability conditions look like.
Lets change that today.
By the end of this thread you will know the 7 low probability conditions you need to avoid.
A Thread๐งต x.com
Lets change that today.
By the end of this thread you will know the 7 low probability conditions you need to avoid.
A Thread๐งต x.com
Being a good and consistent trader means you know how to spot low-probability conditions๐
Not all IRLโERL setups are created equal.
You should be able to know the difference between low probability context and high probability context (IRLโERL)
This is where most traders fail, they think ever FVG is something to trade out of.
Ask yourself this: Where did price come from?
Did this FVG form in consolidation? If yes, AVOID
Not all IRLโERL setups are created equal.
You should be able to know the difference between low probability context and high probability context (IRLโERL)
This is where most traders fail, they think ever FVG is something to trade out of.
Ask yourself this: Where did price come from?
Did this FVG form in consolidation? If yes, AVOID
Condition #1: Lack of Fair Value Gapsโ
Fair Value Gaps show the marketโs intention to go higher or lower.
It is a crucial part of determining the bias and the narrative and without it, it is likely to be a low-probability market condition.
REMEMBER: No FVGโNo OrderflowโNo direction.๐
Fair Value Gaps show the marketโs intention to go higher or lower.
It is a crucial part of determining the bias and the narrative and without it, it is likely to be a low-probability market condition.
REMEMBER: No FVGโNo OrderflowโNo direction.๐
Condition #2: Lack of Follow Throughโ๏ธโ๐ฅ
High probability conditions are seen when FVGs create new FVGs.
Failure to follow through on a fair value gap means that the intention to move higher or lower is not there anymore
So when both bullish and bearish FVGs consistently fail to follow through, we are directionless and are lacking clear orderflow.
Think in terms of chains, if we want it to be tough, the chain shouldnโt be broken or else it will fail.
High probability conditions are seen when FVGs create new FVGs.
Failure to follow through on a fair value gap means that the intention to move higher or lower is not there anymore
So when both bullish and bearish FVGs consistently fail to follow through, we are directionless and are lacking clear orderflow.
Think in terms of chains, if we want it to be tough, the chain shouldnโt be broken or else it will fail.
Condition #3: Trapped Orderflow๐ชค
In trapped orderflow, price is stuck between a HTF premium array and HTF discount array.
Price doesnโt have a clear direction on where it wants to go.
And since it has no clear direction, we must sit still and wait for it to break out of its cage.
In trapped orderflow, price is stuck between a HTF premium array and HTF discount array.
Price doesnโt have a clear direction on where it wants to go.
And since it has no clear direction, we must sit still and wait for it to break out of its cage.
Condition #4: Wrong Currency Pairing๐ฑ
When you pair a strong/strong currency or a weak/weak currency, it is likely to give you unfavorable price delivery.
If you want to learn more about proper currency pairing, check my Currency Futures thread:
x.com
When you pair a strong/strong currency or a weak/weak currency, it is likely to give you unfavorable price delivery.
If you want to learn more about proper currency pairing, check my Currency Futures thread:
x.com
Condition #5: Days of CPI, NFP, & FOMC Release
When it comes to these 3 news events, you NEED to wait for them to release before trading.
You do not want to trade just prior to news release or hold ANY positions during release.
You risk getting slipped and stopped out at a level beyond your stop loss.
The price action on the day before Big 3 news is also inherently lower probability as the market will await the major volatility injection the following day.
When it comes to these 3 news events, you NEED to wait for them to release before trading.
You do not want to trade just prior to news release or hold ANY positions during release.
You risk getting slipped and stopped out at a level beyond your stop loss.
The price action on the day before Big 3 news is also inherently lower probability as the market will await the major volatility injection the following day.
Condition #6: USD Bank Holidays and Half Days
These days simply lack meaningful volatility since banks are closed and majority of market participants are not actively trading.
As a result, price action will be stagnant.
During these days, we should take a break from looking at the charts.
Prepare for the next day where thereโs a better chance of having good price action to trade.
Itโs a holiday. Go enjoy it.
These days simply lack meaningful volatility since banks are closed and majority of market participants are not actively trading.
As a result, price action will be stagnant.
During these days, we should take a break from looking at the charts.
Prepare for the next day where thereโs a better chance of having good price action to trade.
Itโs a holiday. Go enjoy it.
Condition #7: Days Which Lack Red Folder News
Days that lack red folder news typically lead to consolidations
Itโs not guaranteed but the chances of price not doing anything is higher than usual.
You will notice that Mondays typically have no USD high impact news events which is why if you are a beginner, be VERY careful trading on these days.
Days that lack red folder news typically lead to consolidations
Itโs not guaranteed but the chances of price not doing anything is higher than usual.
You will notice that Mondays typically have no USD high impact news events which is why if you are a beginner, be VERY careful trading on these days.
Wanna join me and my FREE community where we are masters of avoiding low probability?
Click here to join the BEST trading community there is: discord.sirpickle.com x.com
Click here to join the BEST trading community there is: discord.sirpickle.com x.com
I hope you've found this thread insightful.
Follow me @SirPickle_ for more.
I would greatly appreciate if you could Like/Repost the post below if you found it helpful!๐
x.com
Follow me @SirPickle_ for more.
I would greatly appreciate if you could Like/Repost the post below if you found it helpful!๐
x.com
Loading suggestions...