I've been involved w/ tech since the early 90's and have framed a few tenants over the years:
1. If a new tech blows my mind, like keeps me up at night, and totally consumes me, it will eventually change the world, but...
1. If a new tech blows my mind, like keeps me up at night, and totally consumes me, it will eventually change the world, but...
2. It WILL take longer for it to go mainstream than I think. This is typically due to infrastructure and/or it's just has one too many "hops" for non-geeky folks to use easily. 10 years seems to be the magic # I see when I look back to my exposure/excitement and mass adoption
3. The itteration it takes once it goes mainstream usually has a few twists. Not exactly the way I or most envisioned it. And it's not usually the company that profits long term that was the leader early on.
4. The company that takes it mainstream & profits was the leader in a related space, but had a visionary that leveraged their one area and grew it into a much broader area. Translation: they were awesome at the one small thing they did and grew it---laser focus with macro vision.
5. Lastly, those leaders that emerge 5-10 years after initial tech ideas seem over priced when they go public for a value oriented guy like me. I need to trust my gut on those once a decade mind blowing techs & keep investing at that later end of the cycle as new, leaders emerge.
@alermen1 @coinbase Obviously things like @lightning network and atomic swaps fulfill the infrastructure part being built. However dApps are earlier in that 10 yr window. I recall a few years ago hearing @VitalikButerin propose $ETH and having that mind blown, couldn't stop thinking about it moment
@alermen1 @coinbase @lightning @VitalikButerin And in terms of current hardware wallet tech, while awesome for security, is just one too many things for average Joe's. Maybe Samsung, Apple or Google comes out with a SIM card like chip, or a hardware wallet that stores in the phone or accesses from the back side of phone.
@alermen1 @coinbase @lightning @VitalikButerin I believe it will take that level of ease/integration to take it mainstream. Something that makes securing your private keys as good as a hardware wallet but as simple as (or better yet integrated into) your phone. It can't be something extra for the average person to manage.
@PatrickKFeldman I hadn't heard that but more apropos now than ever. Listening to "The master algorithm" now on audio book on commute and it's mind blowing. Didn't realize how important data is. Previously thought it was all about marketing/sales. Now understand the case for NSA data center.
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