Robin Brooks
Chief Economist @IIF, former Chief FX Strategist @GoldmanSachs & Senior Economist @IMFnews. Opinions are my own. Email: rbrooks@iif.com.
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1/ The ECB was founded on the principle that monetary & fiscal policy must be kept separate. That went out the window in 2020 when the capital key was dropped as a constraint on QE...
Europe's flawed debate on fiscal rules 1. Europe's debate on fiscal rules is flawed, as de facto spread management - and resulting low yields - make it seem like highly indebted pe...
Evaluation of our sanctions policy 1. Only 2 questions matter. First, have our sanctions meaningfully curtailed Russia's ability to wage war? Second, are our sanctions a deterrent...
Pushbacks to the G7 oil price cap 1. West won't set the cap low enough to hurt 2. Russia will retaliate to spike global oil prices 3. China & India help Russia circumvent the cap 4...
Lessons from Russia sanctions 1. Sanctioning a c/a surplus country is harder 2. You have to hit a c/a surplus country's exports 3. We purposefully avoided that with our carveouts 4...
No one disputes that the ECB has a role in preventing Euro periphery spreads from going crazy. Instead, the issue is whether this gets done via the OMT with strict conditionality o...
The Governor of the Banca d'Italia made a remarkable statement this week: "A differential in the yields of 10-year Italian and German bonds of less than 150 basis points would be j...