Policy Analysis
24 Threads
The unemployment rate rose from 3.96% in May to 4.05% in June. It is now up +0.22pp since March (3.83%). The Sahm rule shows the three-month average is up +0.42pp from the 12-mon...
I'm excited to announce this new paper with Dylan Sullivan and Michail Moatsos. We explore the effect of capitalist reforms on extreme poverty in China. It's a surprising and fasci...
#EU #CHINA REPORT As #EUCO debates China, check new @merics_eu report With @ChimitsF & @Fraghiretti we: 📍Assess 2019 Strategic Outlook implementation 📍Propose Outlook's action po...
New paper using data from 29 countries calculated COVID death rate: 0-19 years old 0.0003% 20-29 0.002% 30-39 0.011% 40-49 0.035% 50-59 0.123% 60-69 0.506% 0-69 0.063-0.082%. 94...
1/9 Interesting article on the difficulty Japan is having in moving away from "Showa" policies. These policies – mostly supply-side policies aimed at turbocharging manufacturing an...
1/5 It is interesting how strong (if carefully expressed) the consensus has become among Chinese economists that "macroeconomic policy to stimulate recovery" (which mainly seems to...
10 lessons for Nigeria from India’s demonetization policy 1. In 2016, the Indian government made a surprise announcement of the withdrawal of the country’s two highest denominatio...
The IMF was set up to provide BoP financing, to keep track of foreign exchange reserves and the external spillovers of countries' policies. So it is impressive just how completely...
1/4 About China's "wildly unbalanced" economy Krugman says: "For reasons I don’t fully understand, policymakers have been reluctant to allow the full benefits of past economic grow...
1/4 A lot of analysts worry that Beijing's proposed wealth redistribution may be incompatible with "the high-end productive and innovative part of the economy". I am not sure I ful...
Are you a Journalist or Policy Analyst who is looking for global #socialimpact career advancement opportunities e.g. fellowships, scholarships, grants, short-term study, and paid r...
This type of standard distributional analysis always misses half of the impact on the policy. It shows the *direct* impact. The *indirect* impact is usually equal in magnitude (and...
The ECB went for a 75bps hike (I was for 50bps). That difference doesn't matter so much, but what concerns me is what was announced, what it can mean for the rest of the cycle, and...
Ur comment prompted me to write a 5-page note, which is on LinkedIn & images here. India's Covid policy response was based on a deep analysis of policy response to GFC & Asian Fin...
Given unprecedented inflation in advanced economies, one has to question their policy choices through the pandemic. While the shock to energy and food prices from the European war...
All eyes are on Jackson Hole, but the real statement of the summer came from @neelkashkari: “I keep asking anybody to explain to me what problem [a CBDC] is solving.” 🧵 https://t.c...
1/13 "Several economists expect that China will avoid a Japan-style stagnation — if the right policies take effect." But when these economists give reasons, it seems they aren't f...
For the record, I supported Demonetization when I was NOT YET CEA. I've always formed my views using empirical evidence even if it meant standing alone based on my courage of convi...
No one disputes that the ECB has a role in preventing Euro periphery spreads from going crazy. Instead, the issue is whether this gets done via the OMT with strict conditionality o...
1/3 In this piece I argue that the huge gap between GDP and consumption growth, mirrored in the even bigger gap between export and import growth, is the result of China's instituti...
Indraprastha Gas(IGL) is a leading City Gas distributor which operates in Delhi. The stock has taken a massive beating in the last 1 month. Lets decipher what happened Hit "Retw...
Re: Oil-Latest Macro Thoughts From Cap One. Lakshmi hosted a private call yesterday and discussed oil macro issues. As usual, I will tease out the salient points, punctuated by my...
Some thoughts about the impact of China's policy on #Bitcoin mining industry: The current situation of #Bitcoin mining in China is not as serious as you think.
Thread: "Opening up" is neither a singular policy nor a moment in time. As I've been reviewing "opening up" policies globally, it is clear we have a naming problem. It allows for...
