Probability
22 Threads
Do you want to become a world-class data analyst in just 6 months? Iβve been there, and I know how overwhelming it can be to learn data analysis from scratch. Thatβs why Iβve cre...
Steve is a shy person. Is Steve more likely to be A Librarian or A Salesperson? A Conditional Probability puzzle! If you chose a Librarian, like most people, you have gotten thi...
You shouldn't be here. Here are the fascinating odds of your existence... β¦and why you should care. This blew my mind: https://t.co/J5sotz6wiY
Conditional probabilities clearly explained with some apples and watermelons! 𧡠https://t.co/Nz6xrrF1uH
"Probability is the logic of science." There is a deep truth behind this conventional wisdom: probability is the mathematical extension of logic, augmenting our reasoning toolkit...
The single biggest argument about statistics: is probability frequentist or Bayesian? It's both, and I'll explain why. Buckle up. Deep-dive thread below. https://t.co/NPsqb1orbk
This meme might not be as simple as you think. Most people get this one wrong. Read this thread if you want to be one of the few that gets it right. https://t.co/nxq6gZEtfo
A fundamental probability concept: βResultingβ In situations where LUCK plays only a small role, we can use OUTCOME to judge PROCESS. That is, if we get a good OUTCOME, that mean...
Example of Bayesian reasoning: If a counterparty rolls or hedges on a predictable periodic schedule the flow is uninformed. You're worried about adverse selection. The time pi...
How to get lucky in life. A thread...
1/ Get a cup of coffee. In this thread, we'll analyze the "Devil's Card Game". This is a super useful thought exercise. It can teach us several key concepts in economics, probab...
What is antifragility? How @nntaleb explains this fundamental concept in one of his wonderful probability lectures. π§΅
What is the single most important concept in statistics? Conditional probability. Without a way to account for prior information in our models, statistical models would be useless...
Expected value is one of the most fundamental concepts in probability theory and machine learning. Have you ever wondered what it really means and where it comes from? The formul...
1/ Get a cup of coffee. In this thread, I'll walk you through some key concepts related to Survival, Resilience, and Aging: - Conditional Lifetime Probabilities, - The Force of...
Street philosophy : It's about the philosophical questions and the existential confusions that are bothering you or pertinent to you, and practically zero or nothing about what S...
How did I get this poll with almost 29k responses to balance perfectly? A thread. π https://t.co/vqNYv6uV5v
Essentially anything's possible. It's possible that if I bought ten lottery tickets in a row, I could win the jackpot with every single ticket, ten times in a row. It's possible, i...
1/ Get a cup of coffee. In this thread, I'll help you understand Markov Chains. In life, and in investing, we often come across situations where luck/chance plays a major role....
1/ Get a cup of coffee. In this thread, I'll help you understand Geometric Expectations. https://t.co/QCObaVh6zd
1/ Get a cup of coffee. Let's talk about the Birthday Paradox. This is a simple exercise in probability. But from it, we can learn so much about life. About strategic problem...
1/ Get a cup of coffee. In this thread, I'll help you understand the basics of Estimation Theory. https://t.co/vgMNPkVHrW