1/ The commander of USAFE-AFAFRICA, Gen. James Hecker, recently told reporters that Ukraine has likely retained over 80% of its aircraft. A brief thread on why Ukraine has likely...

The last two weeks have answered a central question of the Russo-Ukraine War; can Ukraine undertake the offensives required to liberate their people & reoccupy their territory? The...

1/ @ian_matveev, who's one of the smartest Russian-language commentators on the Ukraine war, has posted a very interesting and detailed thread discussing the reasons for Russia's d...

🧵Brief Ukraine War Update I had intended to publish new blog commentary today in relation to the ongoing war in Ukraine. But given that I now perceive an important decision has be...

It looks like the last few days have been the most consequential of the Ukraine War. A brief thread, updated during the day.

Brief recap: Mid-July to late August, Ukraine systematically targeted russian supply lines around Kherson, Kharkiv, Crimea, Donbas & other areas. The 80km HIMARS range, and other...

I see a fallacy here. Russian soldiers KIA =/= total Russian casualties. Ministry of defence estimates do not count: 1) Private military companies (Wagner, etc.) 2) Donetsk and Lu...

1/ Is Russia now so short of manpower that it simply can't defend strategically vital areas near Kharkiv? A fascinating spot by @ItsArtoir (go follow him!) suggests this might be t...

Russia has lost, in two days (if at full strength): Tanks: 12 ( tank co.) APCs: 13 (mechanized rifle co. in BTR/MTLB) Cmd Vic: 1 Arty/AT: 15 (3 mixed arty co.'s) AD: 2 (AAA & S300)...

1/ Quick & dirty thread about reported (alleged) Russian losses - for People with no mil background - you might not have noticed it, but this is really heavy right now! they are fu...

🧵Thread 🧵 How to end the war in Ukraine. Germany can end the war in Ukraine single-handedly. The US cannot afford a proxy war with Russia if Germany backs out of sanctions agains...

People underestimate how bad this war is for Ukraine in the long-run because they have in mind the post-WW2 model of recovery, but the war is going to have very different consequen...

🧵 Oleg Zhdanov, the Ukrainian military expert, with his battlefield and military-political situation update on 27 August 2022. Note this update is about 6 hours old now. https://t...

The myth about the "ethnic conflict" within Ukraine - debunked "Ukrainian facists were killing ethnic Russians in Donbas" or Ukraine commits "genozide against ethnic Russians in U...

1/ Another account of a Russian soldier's involvement in the war in Ukraine has emerged via the independent Russian media outlet Important Stories. Daniil Frolkin, a 21-year-old co...

I'd argue that before 2014 Ukraine had almost zero *Ukrainian* right-wing movement. Because the right wing movement it had was inseparable from the Russian far right. Back in 2011...

1/ A 34-year-old former Russian paratrooper, Pavel Filatyev, has published a remarkable in-depth account of his experiences of the Ukraine war. He served with the Feodosia-based 56...

In military operations, we often speak about ‘seizing the initiative’. It is a term used in doctrinal publications, and heavily emphasised in leadership & operations. Today, an exa...

1/ The Italian journalist Cristiano Tinazzi @tincazzi, who's been reporting from Ukraine, has posted a long and informative eyewitness testimony of her experiences in Ukraine in re...

It is at best, deeply irresponsible for CBS and Amnesty to make these claims without rigorous evidence. This mirrors a lot of unsupported rumor I hear primarily from those without...

1/ How has the Russian army responded to the huge casualties it's suffered in Ukraine? For a bonus 🧵, I'll draw once more on @wartranslated's archive of translated phone calls by R...

1/ Why do Russian soldiers break on the Ukranian battlefield? This third 🧵 in a series looks at at how their personal experiences of war have prompted some Russian contract soldier...

As we seen the unfolding Ukrainian operations in southern Ukraine, it is worth pondering, what happens when Ukraine takes back the south? 1/21 🧵 https://t.co/StZxhtZF2Y

It's been a while since I’ve provided thoughts on Ukraine (again, due to work/travel), but perhaps it’s time for a new thread on Ukraine. I'll start with a few comments on this te...