Count Draghula
Macro trading is dead, because markets aren't allowed to find fair value.
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Trade (and the capital flows that follow) must persist or we risk collapse. For the last 40y the US has run an external deficit, importing capital (and exporting USD) to the big 3...
"All sub-components of the PMI are
Credit Default Swaps (CDS). Lots of attention on US Sov CDS given the debt ceiling. 1Y has traded higher than in the 2011 episode. CDS at the best of times is a bad market. DM so...
An old rule-of-thumb for bond traders is to buy the 2-year bond just after the second-to-last rate hike. How well has this worked? A STUDY of buying short bonds throughout histor...
The Fed now earns less on its assets than it pays on liabilities. It's a problem, and the only realistic way to fix this short-term is to slow down hikes. If they don't fix it, w...
There is a dominant belief on fintwit that the Fed "controls" the Treasury market. This has led @UrbanKaoboy to deduce that the Fed can set the yield curve in one of the largest t...
QT will probably end in early 2023, and not because of recession. It will stop because the Fed can't shrink its balance sheet past $8trn ($8.9trn now) without introducing problems...
@MacroAlf My favourite story about tech and productivity is about FedEx. They had a desire to solve the problem of shortest routes for their drivers and which packages each should...