Michael Pettis
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. For speaking engagements, please contact me at chinfinpettis@yahoo.com
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1/4 Trade data for the first two months of 2023 saw both imports and exports falling, with imports falling much more. This had worrying implications for a consumption revival, but...
1/8 I think this article misunderstands China's debt problem. "For years," it says, "foreign investors fretted over Chinaβs Minsky moment. With a debt pile hovering at around 300%...
1/4 Policy advisors are becoming much bolder. Cai Fang, a member of the Peopleβs Bank of Chinaβs monetary policy committee, has proposed that China implement at direct stimulus of...
1/6 "The crypto influx 'got everyone thinking', prompting more serious discussions of topics such as introducing round-the-clock trading for traditional asset classes." https://t....
1/7 This continues to be shocking to me. A number of trade experts are again saying that import tariffs "don't work" because they raise the cost of goods to domestic consumers. B...
1/4 Important changes. Caixin notes that the Financial Stability and Development Committee, which is being absorbed into the new Central Financial Commission "was constrained in ca...
1/4 "China will set up a financial watchdog run by the Communist Party, state media reported on Thursday, as part of a broad reorganisation of governing bodies set to give the ruli...
1/4 This article cites a number of financial experts as saying that China will strictly control local government debt this year, but while this might indeed be true this year, it i...
1/5 The PBoC's holdings of US Treasury securities fell to US$859.4 billion, hitting a 14-year low, but while this seems to imply that Chinese exposure to USD is declining, in fact...
1/5 The PBoC says it will steadily reduce the number of high-risk institutions to help fend off systemic financial risks, but how does "reducing" the number of high-risk institutio...
1/5 Retail sales in the first two months of 2023 were up 3.5% year on year. This is a welcome respite from declines at the end of last year, although we are all hoping (and expecti...
1/10 I think the NYT is absolutely right in associating the increasing centralization of power in the Chinese financial system with the slowing of the economy and the surge in fina...