Michael Pettis
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. For speaking engagements, please contact me at chinfinpettis@yahoo.com
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1/5 This article is right to claim that "inflation in China this year is unlikely to hit the heights of other major economies as they reopened." It it is wrong however to conclude...
1/7 Total social financing rose in December by RMB 1.31 trillion, which was below expectations but still up 9.6% from last December. This raises TSF to RMB 346 trillion, for a 10.2...
1/4 "Chinese bond prices declined sharply, prompting a surge of WMP redemptions by risk-averse individual investors. That forced WMP managers to slash bond holdings, which in retur...
1/5 Good thread by Brad Setser on trade imbalances. He notes that the rising surpluses of East Asia and the main oil exporters are almost perfectly aligned with the rising deficit...
1/6 Beijing is making it harder for certain types of businesses to list because it wants to prevent businesses that are less strategically important from absorbing capital that mig...
1/6 We'll see a lot more of this over the coming years. One of the consequences historically of long-term growth bubbles is the ways in which they systematically distort the behavi...
1/10 Adam's excellent piece on explicit and implicit fiscal transfers is interesting enough for students of Germany in the 1930s, but it is also relevant for those interested more...
1/10 "Chinese state media appear to be downplaying concerns that countries such as India could steal Chinaβs crown as the so-called worldβs factory." They cite one economist who n...
1/6 I suppose its good that regulators are looking in more places for potential vulnerabilities in the global financial system, but I wonder if the approach to risk management isn'...
1/7 Interesting article about the tactics the PBoC has developed over the past few years to manage the RMB while avoiding direct intervention. These tactics are largely why reserve...
1/2 Railway investment in China seems to have peaked three years ago and has been declining since then (although still way too high, in my opinion). As Caixin notes, "China has rel...
1/9 Good thread by Adam Wolfe on the restructuring of an LGFV in Guizhou and its implications. Given its substantial debt problems Guizhou is likely to pioneer China's approach to...