Phillips P. OBrien
Phillips P. OBrien

@PhillipsPOBrien

5 Tweets 10 reads Apr 01, 2022
An article of mine has appeared in @TheAtlantic , it’s to start questioning why the analysis of the Russian military was so mistaken. One thing I think we need to understand is that studying weapons and doctrine is very different than understanding war. theatlantic.com
A few people have said that the overestimation of Russian capabilities might not have been a bad thing as it led to Putin being too ambitious. No offence, but this is madness for three reasons
1) You want to be able to trust that your system of analysis is correct, or you could make major strategic mistakes.
2) a major strategic mistake could have been made here if less support had been given to Ukraine before the war (as many were arguing should be the case)
3) don’t think Putin cared at all what our think tanks thought. He created his own system to reinforce his prejudices. Didn’t need us to help him.

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