Bob Elliott
CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | all comments are personal views and not investment advice
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The Fed faces a serious credibility challenge in '24 no matter what path they take: * Keeping rates steady on inflation concerns will have them viewed as too hawkish. * Easing wit...
The recent fall in oil prices is more likely to be bad for 2s than good for them.
Today's strong economic data and weak market action aligns with the ordering below of how the markets and the economy will play out over the next few quarters. While impacts are no...
With the most recent leg down, this US bond selloff is on par with the largest ever in history. As shown next, it's also in line the largest falls for major countries that didn't...
I taught an introductory macro & markets course for a decade that started each year with "The Economic Organization of a P.O.W. Camp." It covers nearly every major macro concept i...
The US over the next 3-6m: -Real growth moderates from above to at/modestly below potential -Inflation subdued but not at target -Fed will take it easy on tightening further -Fisca...
It's hard to know where any economy is going. But if you want to start predicting where the macro economy will go in the next 3-6m, here are the 13 key indicators to track that wi...
Even with 500bps of tightening, money just isn't all that tight. In past cycles rates peaked >5% above core PCE inflation. Today the Fed's actions have brought rates to just matc...
In an environment where elevated nominal income (not supply shocks) is driving inflation it is misleading to focus on subsets of core inflation. Nominal income growth is elevated...
With conflicting data across reports much better to triangulate than pick what you like. Picture still looking secularly tight with wages still too strong for the Fed. Payrolls an...
The dynamics with $PACW are exactly what I was talking about: *Apr 28 to May 3. Specs drive stock down 40% *Post close May 3, announce exploring strategic options *Specs drive sto...
The US will not default once the debt limit is hit. While its fashionable to breathlessly talk of disaster, it indicates a poor knowledge of the mechanics. Treasury will prioriti...