Jim Bianco
Macro investment research at https://t.co/hQqAza8GGP Our total return index is at https://t.co/vta9eqevnU The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
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1/4 How concentrated has the SPX's 7.05% YTD rally been? 5.81% of this gain is from the eight FAANG+MNT stocks (listed on the chart) 1.24% of this gain is from the "other" 4.92...
1/3 The market is quickly reversing the Fed pause and reversal for 2H 2023. A series of charts to detail it. First, the 3-month T-Bill is above 5% for the first time in 16 years...
1/3 Was yesterday the last rate hike of the cycle? The blue line in the chart below shows the expected terminal rate derived from fed funds futures contracts. The orange line sh...
1/14 $SVB fails two days after $SI fails. Why now? What was the catalyst? tl:dr Their deposit rates are too low, and there is an effective run on the entire βlow yieldingβ bankin...
The 2-year is down 44 bps over the last two days (since Wed's close). Only four other days in the last 40 years have seen larger two-day moves. Oct 20, 1987 = the day after the l...
1/2 Interesting passage from Powell's testimony today: https://t.co/SuKSba2oJW
1/8 Where is the market going into Powell tomorrow morning? tl:dr - the most hawkish it has been in the year since they started hiking rates. Or the opposite of a pause or pivot...
1/3 Regarding the bond market, 2023 is going to be a year of "mean reversion." 2022 was very bad, so 2023 has to be better. This might be the case by December 31. But in early Ma...
1/3 https://t.co/BLQ0j5SQkT
1/6 Now up to SEVEN big reversals in a little more 2 days! INTRA-day volatility increasing, especially when the market is trading sideways, and not trending, like below. https://...
1/5 π§΅on changes in thinking in just 2 weeks Today's forward curve (cyan) is now equal to the year-end Fed's (blue), This is a HUGE move from Feb 2 (green). A pivot is no longer...
1/4 Tick chart of the NYSE-ONLY session for the SPX (9:30AM-4PM ET). It shows the last week (Feb 7 - 14). Highlighted and admittedly messy are all the 1% reversals in the S&P ove...