Conflict Analysis
64 Threads
🚨 1/4 NEW PLATFORM LAUNCH: Our FAI Unit has verified & geolocated 100s of videos of IOF attacks on hospitals in #Gaza. With @ForensicArchi we identified the following patterns: 1....
Is #Chad going to be the next domino to fall in the Sahel? My latest analysis for @CSIS argues that not only is the country on the brink of a coup and possibly civil war, but that...
1/ Very interesting developments in weapons systems coming out of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Apparently the homemade RPG system they are using is a tandem-charge system. This destr...
About the #Gaza #hospital blast, The version saying it would have been caused by Palestinian rocket (mis)fire is gaining traction online and among #OSINT communities. A thread sh...
🇵🇸🇮🇱‼️ MUST READ: Analysis on the inconsistencies of the Israeli/Hamas conflict, from milChronichles: 1) Israel did not know about the preparations for the attack. Gaza is a narr...
So finally we have time to post that small thingie about the current cope about Russians fighting outside their defensive lines. There are 3 lies in this claim. The first lie is ba...
Analysis of the situation in Omdurman, given confusing recent fighting. 2:40am, 3rd of June 2023 Green = SAF, Red = RSF https://t.co/HFJnLT3APs
Full strategic analysis of the situation in Khartoum, as of 1:22AM 3rd June 2023. https://t.co/ZqGah2ZseU
The Battle of Bakhmut is over. It was one of the longest battles of the 21st century to date, and certainly the bloodiest. Russia won. In doing so it destroyed much of the Ukrai...
Let's talk about Russian small-unit tactics on the offensive. With Russian troops stepping up attacks across the front in Ukraine, I suspect this will be very relevant in the near...
In warfare, an important target is often the enemy commander and the headquarters that assists them to plan and execute military operations. A thread on #Gerasimov, failure and the...
I think the advantage has shifted in favor of the SAF over the past week and they have regained control of the situation in Khartoum. I will explain why with military strategy and...
Ukrainian forces (currently clinging to about 5% of Bakhmut) have been attempting to demolish several of the high rises on the western edge of the town, but were unable to due to i...
Last night, I tweeted that I had been assessing & considering the challenges Ukraine's Army (UA) Commanders were facing in preparing for the “spring offensives. I said I'd share...
🧵 1/16 Russian forces are revamping their assault tactics after experiencing failures with their current structure. The Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) are getting replaced with a...
1/ This thread 👇 really took off, so I want to address a few points people have raised. They are: 1) why doesn't 🇺🇦 go for Troits'ke; 2) is the 🇷🇺 offensive at Bakhmut really desig...
1 Did Ukraine and the West use 2014 Minsk agreement not for peace but to buy time? 7 Dec Merkel: "It was clear to all of us that the conflict was frozen, that the problem hadn't b...
Hi all, been a while so figured it would be a good time to give an update on what I've been working on. Basically a ground level up study on supply requirements for Russian units a...
Today I had some time to ponder a few of the lessons of the war in Ukraine for NATO armies. Doesn't mean I am 100% correct and everyone will draw different conclusions, but here a...
A little 🧵on nuclear weapons in the context of the war in Ukraine.
I think Kremlin may view nuclear strike on Ukraine (with an American retaliatory strike) as a rational move. It may not make much sense in the context of foreign policy, but it doe...
Ukraine's operational design seems pretty consistent, focused on creating conditions where logistically Russian forces must withdraw rather than pounding through them in either lin...
@ivan_stoner @The_scanner_man A long story short: b/c I have been closely following this story since 2012; in those days there were more videos of the events that soon lead to horr...
Alexander Khodakovsky, the pro-Russian Donetsk commander, admitted that Ukraine prepared for a defensive war, while they were preparing for an offensive one. So he refuted the RU m...
