Economic Indicators
45 Threads
Knowing to predict and read the economic data releases is one of the essential qualities for the traders. Here I dropped a thread on #NFP. #forexeducation https://t.co/W3r1pDUgT2
The latest the calculation of the "Sahm rule" recession indicator shows the three-month average of the (unrevised) unemployment rate is now 0.36 pp above the lowest such reading fo...
The private-sector job vacancy rate fell to 5.3% in March, the lowest level since January 2021 There were 1.3 vacancies for every unemployed worker in March, the lowest since Augu...
Forex Outlook - 22 APR 2024 -=- This week we have PMIs, AUD CPI, but eyes will be on US GDP, CPE and even the BoJ Let's not forget the GeoPol risks -=- #EURJPY $EURJPY #GBPJPY...
Forex Outlook - 08 APR 2024 -=- CPI and FOMC minutes in focus this week Couple of rate reveals Try not to blow up -=- #EURJPY $EURJPY #GBPJPY $GBPJPY $EURUSD #EURUSD $GBPUSD #G...
The core PCE index rose 0.26% in February. January's reading (initially 0.42%) was revised up to a 0.45% gain. The 12-month core PCE rate was 2.8% in February, the lowest in thre...
The core CPI rose 0.36% in February and was up 3.8% from a year earlier. The 6-month annualized rate was also 3.8%, and 3-month annualized rate was 4.3%. https://t.co/D17y8RIIms...
A closer look at today's 3 NBER indicators. Among the 4 inversions where it took longer for the recession to start than where we are now, current personal income is close to the 3r...
The index of aggregate weekly payrolls for private-sector workers, which combines hiring, wages, and hours, slowed in October as wages cooled and hours worked declined The index...
Nonfarm payrolls: +150k vs 170k expected in Oct Aug & Sept figures revised down combined 101K 10-year yield down to 4.57% https://t.co/LIHbz6VSmy
The employment-cost index is at the Fed as the highest-quality measure of compensation growth The ECI component of greatest relevance to the Fed, wages and salaries for private...
Make that 15 months of negative year-over-year readings for the @Conferenceboard leading economic indicators. The longest stretch of YoY negative readings before a #recession was...
#Breaking | July CPI at 7.44% vs 4.81% in June #CPI #JulyCPI https://t.co/SjGZWsTDFc
The employment-cost index is seen within the Fed as the highest-quality measure of compensation growth The ECI component of greatest relevance to the Fed, wages and salaries for p...
Housing market dynamics are crucial to understand if you want to become a better macro investor Hereβs what you need to know A thread π§΅
It's hard to know where any economy is going. But if you want to start predicting where the macro economy will go in the next 3-6m, here are the 13 key indicators to track that wi...
Jobless claims came in at +264k, same as last week at highest since Oct 2021. Shrugged off by bond market. https://t.co/XRDf2zRkjk
I've been saying for a while that the BLS is messing with our heads β or, actually, that in a time of big structural shifts different indicators give contrary indications, plus we...
The YoY growth rate in the Leading Economic Index fell further into negative territory in April and is at levels that have signaled a recession in the past (2020, 2008, and 2001).....
quick update going into the new week. big picture not much has changed for broader macro conditions from my last update, with the exception of a strong earnings season. a net posi...
The Employment Cost Index weighs in on the side of the argument that wage growth is not slowing--suggesting that the average hourly earnings slowdown was a spurious result of compo...
The core PCE index rose 0.3% in March, with monthly gains for January and February revised up. +4.9% over the previous 3 months, annualized +4.2% over the previous 6 months, annu...
The wage report from the ECI at 8:30 am ET this morning is important because a) several Fed officials have said it is their favored measure of labor compensation and b) conflicting...
Core PCE inflation in February +4.6% over the previous 12 months +4.9% over the previous 3 months, annualized +4.5% over the previous 6 months, annualized https://t.co/YdokzmQI0B