Jason Furman
Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.
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The labor force participation rate is 1.3pp below what it was in February 2020. You would have expected the aging population to lower it 0.4pp over that period. The other 0.9pp i...
One confusing thing about #econtwitter is there are always two valid debates happening simultaneously that often bleed into each other. But once you realize they're different it's...
Uncomfortably hot jobs report. 528K jobs added & unemployment rate falls to 3.5%. What worries me re inflation is avg hourly earnings were up at a 5.8% ar in July. June revised to...
Also there is the baseline. The minimum tax revenue is new revenue. It is gross inflation reduction relative the trajectory we are on. ACA premiums is an extension. Doesn't raise...
Lots and lots of inflation artwork coming your way! https://t.co/BSiY6GeRcV
My latest @ProSyn tries to make sense of the last data & Fed actions. My conclusion: the Fed needs to follow the same principle that made it so successful in helping to prevent eco...
One way my views on tax policy differ from many of my conservative friends is that I think revenue & distribution dwarf just about all other considerations. IF I could choose reve...
I keep seeing the argument "labor markets are not tight, look real wages are not up." This misunderstands the Philips curve which is about *nominal* changes. Philips curves have p...
Core PCE inflation at an annual rate: 12 months: 4.8% 6 months: 4.8% 3 months: 5.2% 1 month: 7.4% Only a little of that is passthrough from the Russian invasion. More soon.
The ECI offers a smidge of comfort about the trajectory of inflation. Private wages & salaries excluding incentive paid occupations rose 5.4% (annual rate), slightly below its rec...
The Treasury Secretary decries the "simple-minded" two quarters definition of a recession, cites the the National Bureau of Economic Research as the official arbiter. George Schul...
I plan to update my views more than usual (and perhaps more than I should) based on tomorrow's Employment Cost Index release. The reason: the data is so contradictory that I have r...