Jason Furman
Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.
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In the last two quarters: GDP: -1% (assuming GDP Now is correct, a big assumption) Employment: +2% We have never seen a disconnect like that before in the data (available since...
The labor market data say it was very unlikely the economy was in recession in the first half of 2022. The @Claudia_Sahm Rule is not signaling recession. https://t.co/70vRjrUwXF
If all you had access to was the labor market data you would be talking about an economy with strong growth and falling inflation. The economy added 372K jobs in June, unemploymen...
The @business_econ talk I just gave on "Supply and/or Demand?" I went through four problems (or fallacies) in disentangling supply from demand in the current context which I summar...
Question from next year's Ec10 problem set: How is the incidence of a state gas tax holiday (for residents of the state) different from the incidence of a federal holiday?
A clever paper by Adam Hale Shapiro (@sffed) that disentangles the supply and demand contributors to inflation. He finds that the majority of the increase in *overall* inflation is...
Russia's invasion has added a lot to inflation. But inflation would have high even absent the invasion. One way to see this is to look at past episodes where energy prices rose by...
I'm not sure I understand why people find wage-price spirals or persistence confusing and controversial but it might be the issue is the terminology. Here is what we know--and one...
Whatever you thought of the merits of a gas tax holiday in February it is a worse idea now. Refineries are even more constrained now so supply is nearly fully inelastic. Most of th...
Since @bencasselman tweeted this IHS Markit revised their Q2 tracker down twice (once for business inventories and once for housing starts). It now stands at 0.8% annual growth. Wh...
Good moves by the Fed. Most importantly the Fed has dramatically shifted expectations for forward rates--and today's 75bp helped that happen. In March the highest dot for 2022 was...
Nominal retail sales fell 0.3% in May (more adjusted for inflation). Sales revised down for April too. Last week got weak news on services through April. BUT consumer spending for...