Jason Furman
Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.
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When the data disagrees (as it does not on whether nominal wage growth is rising or falling), we all try to find reasons. This was an interesting hypothesis from @paulkrugman but I...
Today's large jump in the Atlanta Fed is a piece of evidence against my view that nominal wage growth is slowing. I had thought the issue was the way the timing of the data was re...
The argument by @ojblanchard1 @asdomash & @LHSummers that the natural rate has risen because matching efficiency has declined is compelling. But it has the testable implication of...
For everyone trying to add and subtract special factors the median CPI continues its relentless upward march. This is the CPI for the median price change (and is no longer shelter)...
Whoa. CME-estimated market odds of a 100bp hike at the next meeting have risen from 0.0% a week ago to 42.8% now. I would still recommend sticking to 75bp (although 100bp would be...
The 12-month core CPI fell from 6.0% in the year through May to 5.9% in the year through June. But don't get too excited--this is probably not telling you what you think it is. Al...
Another brutal CPI report. Headline CPI was 1.3% (17.1% annual rate). But that's outdated given recent gasoline declines. What was brutal was core CPI rose to 0.7% (8.8% annual r...
I've been emphasizing the slowdown in private average hourly earnings as a reason I've lowered my outlook for inflation. Some have pointed out there is less of a slowdown in growth...
An "inverse policy rule" is a useful gut check on monetary policy. Policy rules show what interest rates should be given inflation & unemployment (or output) if policymakers foll...
What is going on with inflation? The price and wage data are telling two very different stories. As someone who believes that ultimately prices and wages are linked I view that as...
Headline jobs number was 372,000 in June based on employer survey. But a survey of households showed 315,000 fewer people employed in June. How should a Bayesian combine these da...
Willie Powell & my blog on the latest jobs data. The labor market is strong evidence that the economy was not in recession in the first half of 2022 & suggests inflation may be mod...